NEW SHOOTS.

At the end of 2018 I said in a post that I could find nothing hopeful or positive for my Christmas message. I am a bit more hopeful for 2019. The new shoots of snowdrops are coming up. The government seems to be finally taking action on air quality in our towns and cities. There seems to be more emphasis by the NHS on creating and keeping a healthier population. Prevention is better, and cheaper, than cure- I have been saying this for decades. Regarding my own health I have now had a scan and a colonoscopy following my operation at the end of 2017, and I am happy to say that my colon has been given a completely clean bill of health. I have just booked my flights to go and visit my Saffie friends in Spain and I am looking forward to that. I have started dating again. My book will be published in the next few days. The days are getting longer, and I will soon be getting out for longer walks on the fells again.

So, that’s me sorted out more or less, there is still the mast problem and Brexit but both of those are coming to a head and should soon be decided one way or another. I’m afraid the rest of the world is not so lucky, but they will have to sort themselves for now. I would like to help but for the moment I am concentrating on putting my own oxygen mask on before I help others. I hope everything is just as positive for my family and friends. 0

PPS

In support of my optimism for the likelihood of reform of the EU, there is a significant rise in support for populist parties throughout Europe, most of them on the far right. None have yet shown any inclination to leave the EU, especially having seen the pickle we have got ourselves into. The European parliamentary elections are coming up soon so we will see just how far the tide has turned. Even in Germany, thanks to Merkels disastrous immigration policy, the right-wing Alternative for Germany party, polling nationally at about 14%, is expecting to double the 7 European parliament seats it won last time.

Catherine de Vries, professor of European politics at the Free University of Amsterdam, predicts that populist parties will end up with a quarter to a third of the seats. Not enough to gain control of the parliament but enough to break the previous balance of power between the centre-right and centre-left parties who have dominated the European parliament since its inception, about 60 years ago. They are bracing themselves for an assault on their plans for ever closer union. The first big battle will come when MEP’s are called upon to find a successor to Jean-Claud Juncker, the European commission president, there are also long running conflicts over migration and the Eurozone budget. Brussels is concerned about what they see as growing disrespect for the rule of law, by the likes of Victor Orban in Hungary and the Polish government. One of the main proponents of closer union, Macron, whose election was hailed as a turning back of the populist tide, has subsequently faced a massive populist revolt at home.

So, it would appear that a fresh breeze of change is blowing through the stale air of the corridors of power in Brussels, it’s just a pity that most of the puff is coming from the far right. But now we need the same breeze to blow through our stale institutions and government, and get the British people fighting fit and engaged to face whatever lies ahead, I won’t be holding my breath.

BREXIT: THE UNCIVIL WAR POSTSCRIPT.

Let me make it clear exactly what my position is with regard to Brexit. We would be better off, eventually, out of the EU as it is now. We would be better off in the EU if it reformed; freedom of movement but not an automatic right to settle, individual sovereignty always overrides EU, get rid of nearly all the unelected, overpaid eurocrats, slim down generally and get rid of all the silly rules. If we are to come out it would make more sense to do so from a strong position and having prepared for it, rather than the shambles we have now. I know there are those who feel very strongly about leaving or staying in, probably the majority don’t feel that strongly either way. I voted remain for selfish reasons, as I get older it is useful to have the rest of Europe on the doorstep along with hassle free borders and reciprocal medical arrangements, not to mention all the other benefits of co-operation with the rest of Europe and keeping the peace of course. The vast majority will not see any benefit from coming out in any case, they never see any benefit from anything. It doesn’t make much difference whether you are being shafted by your own government or by the EU.

Having said that we will not improve the lives of the majority until we get our own house in order and take back control from all those incompetent donkeys who control most people’s lives, not mine I am happy to say. Then we need to improve the health and intelligence of the general population, there will probably be some thoughts about that in my next post. Will any of this happen? I have my doubts. In any case there many more important issues threatening our way of life, indeed our lives full stop, than Brexit. That’s why I am trying to set up an alternative.

I think it more likely now than it has been so far, to be possible to create a more flexible Europe, we have tried but gave up too easily. One has to admit that probably the only politicians to stand up to the Brussels elite were Margaret Thatcher and Nigel Farage. Populist parties are gaining ground throughout Europe and some are even in government, such as in Austria, Hungary, Poland and most recently Italy, then there are those who have been bullied by the EU, in particular Greece. It has to be said though, that none of those countries have shown any inclination to leave the union.

So, what is the answer? That’s a tricky one, but Mays deal? Definitely not, it would leave us with the worst of both worlds. No deal? better but the EU would go out of their way to punish us and would find it easy as we are so weak and divided at the moment. Another referendum? No that would divide the country even further and could well be a close call again. A general election? Waste of time and money, Labour are just as divided on Brexit as the Tories. It seems to me there is only one way out of the conundrum, the pragmatic and logical approach, just delay coming out for another five years. Spend that time preparing to leave from a strong position, building up our independence and self-sufficiency   and joining forces with those other populist governments to force the EU to reform, simples. If we then decide to come out in five years we can dictate the terms, assuming we have managed get a better quality of government by then. I won’t be offering my services, I think I can do more good from the back benches and by continuing to work on the alternative.

I offer a parallel to illustrate my suggestions. In my last paid employment, I was getting bored and wanted a change, my employers were definitely pissed off with me. I sensed redundancy getting closer, so I started working on my exit strategy. We had quite a big mortgage at the time so I took out a PPI that would pay the whole of the mortgage for a year. Unfortunately, they needed my skills more than I thought, were dragging their heels getting rid of me and I was forking out for the PPI. Eventually, I speeded up the process by dissing a visiting General, that was it I had embarrassed the Army and a week later I was driving out of the gate with my belongings in a plastic bag. My redundency pay was in the bank and the PPI paid my mortgage for a year while I set up my property development business. I am probably one of the few people to have benefited from a PPI.

So, there we have it, the Remainers will be happy to be staying in for now, the Bexiteers may not be happy but their “leave” result in the referendum will only have been delayed and surely most of them will be able to see the logic in delaying. All this is however purely academic and logic will probably play no part in what eventually happens, which is anyone’s guess. We are living in interesting times, but we should remember that, “may you live in interesting times”, was an ancient Chinese curse.

BREXIT: THE UNCIVIL WAR.

Did you see it on TV last night? It was quite good, Benedict Cumberbatch was brilliant as usual. I think it showed just how the referendum has divided the country and the sheer nastiness and intolerance of other’s opinions that has risen to the surface. Myself, I am still unsure of whether we are better in or out; but the one thing I am sure about is that we aren’t ready to come out yet. I like the idea of a united Europe but unfortunately vested interests, especially those Eurocrats who are paid massive EU salaries, have taken it too far and in the wrong direction, far too much bureaucracy and regulation. There is probably a lot to be said for a two speed Europe where those who are prepared to accept loss of sovereignty for a closer union can do so. The rest of us could still be in the club but not entitled to dine at the high table, but neither should we have pay for the dinners of those who are. We can complain all we like about the Brussels elite, but we need to get our own house in order also.

The referendum result was close enough, the campaigns by both sides, with leave probably a bit worse, corrupt and full of untrue claims enough and the intentions of a public, sidelined for decades and finally given a voice, uncertain enough, to cause doubt about the validity of the result. Was it a genuine desire of the British people to leave the EU, or a protest? And was the information they were fed true enough for them to make an informed decision? At the end of the day a referendum is not legally binding and only there to give the government an indication of the will of the people. In this case there is still considerable doubt about that.

I don’t think we need another divisive referendum now and I think most people would heave a sigh of relief if the government just said we are staying in for now. May’s deal is the worst of both worlds and no deal will cause chaos for years. Basically, even if it would be better for us to leave, we are not ready. It makes far more sense to be pragmatic, if we are going to leave let’s put it off until we can do it in a more orderly way.

I think five years is a reasonable time and then we can have another referendum if necessary. We should use those five years to prepare for a time when we might be coming out of the EU and take steps to reduce our dependence and loosen our ties with the EU. We should also use our influence to try to reform the EU. This whole business has been a wake up call for both us and the EU. We need to improve the health and intelligence of the British people. We need to start making and growing things again, until we are as self-sufficient as we can be. We don’t want to depend on financial services let the banks go to Stuttgart, fuck off we don’t need you. We need some industries that will benefit the majority not a very small minority. All the banks do is cream off percentages of all our money to pay their obscene bonuses. Some trade is all very well but is good to be self-sufficient for your basic needs. I doubt very much if any of this will happen, we don’t seem to able to do the right thing anymore. The slogan of the Leave Campaign was “Take Back Control”, I don’t see why we shouldn’t take back control and stay in.

I have a lot more ideas in my book, which will be published real soon, watch this space. –